October 2007
With the baseball playoffs approaching, a favorite occupation of baseball fans is predicting the results of the series and the eventual champion. It can be hard to analyze talent at all positions and all the factors that influence the result. This article contains seven guidelines for predicting baseball champions.
1. Park Effects are Key
In the long run, teams play about the same number of games in pitcher’s parks then they do in hitter’s parks. In the playoffs, teams often play a greater number of their games in one park because they play fewer total games. Therefore, park effects are of more importance in the playoffs than in the regular season.
How can you figure out which teams are aided by what kinds of parks? A team that depends mostly on singles would do best in a large park where it is easier to hit balls between the outfielders and where their lack of power doesn’t hurt them. A power-hitting team, on the other hand, would obviously benefit from playing in a small park. It is easy to determine whether a team has power or not. First, look at the hitters and divide the batting average of the starting lineup by the slugging average. If the number is greater than three-fifths then the team is like Ichiro Suzuki in that they generally use singles and stolen bases to score runs. If the number is less than three-fifths then the team is more similar to Adrian Beltre or Barry Bonds in that they count more on the long ball and walks. A team’s success in the playoffs can depend on park effects, so it is important to account for whether a team uses singles or power to win games.
If a park has asymmetrical dimensions, the outcome of a game may hinge on whether a team has right or left-handed talent. Just remember that right-handed hitters generally hit to left field and southpaws to right. Even the pitching staff can be influenced by a park. If a team has pitchers with high homeruns allowed numbers, they do best in large fields since balls that would be homers in a smaller stadium turn into long flyouts.
2. Teams Need Balance in Hitting
Which team did better in this World Series between the New York Yankees and the Pittsburgh Pirates?
| Game |
NYY Runs |
PIT Runs |
Winner |
| 1 |
4 |
6 |
PIT |
| 2 |
16 |
3 |
NYY |
| 3 |
10 |
0 |
NYY |
| 4 |
2 |
3 |
PIT |
| 5 |
2 |
5 |
PIT |
| 6 |
12 |
0 |
NYY |
| 7 |
9 |
10 |
PIT |
| Series |
55 |
27 |
PIT |
New York scored more than twice as many runs as Pittsburgh yet lost the series 4-3. Why was this? Bill Mazeroski’s home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of the seventh game might have had something to do with it, but notice the pattern here. With three blowouts and four close losses, New York’s number of runs varied wildly. Pittsburgh’s offense was remarkably consistent; only the Game Seven win was out of place. We can measure the amount of variation between games with standard deviation. The Yankees had a 5.37 standard deviation while the Pirates had only 3.53, and just 2.48 excepting Game Seven. The typical standard deviation of a major league team is about 3.5. Pittsburgh won because of their low standard deviation, despite the fact that New York scored more than twice as many runs.
Having a low standard deviation can drive a team all the way to the World Series. Think of it this way: Which result is better, a 15-2 win or a 5-4 win? Both scores are equal, since as long as you win, it doesn’t matter how many runs you score. For teams to be successful in the playoffs, they must have a high winning percentage and not a high number of runs scored. To measure the effects of standard deviation, I conducted a statistical study of two hypothetical teams, each scoring the league average number of runs. Team 1, however, had a 3.68 standard deviation, while Team 2 had 4.55. Because of their low standard deviation, Team 1 had a .552 winning percentage over more than 3,000 games. This translates to an incredible .611 winning percentage in the World Series. A low standard deviation of runs scored is a major factor of a team’s success.
An easy way to predict success in the playoffs is to look at a team’s fluctuation in runs. To evaluate a team’s lineup in this way, get a record of a team’s games and calculate the standard deviation. If this method isn’t practicable, then just look for balance in a team’s lineup. Teams with a high standard deviation have greater fluctuation in the number of runs scored. There is also more fluctuation among a few players than many. Teams that depend on a small core of batters have higher standard deviations than teams who have balanced lineups where most players can hit fairly well.
The St. Louis Cardinals of 2004 clearly demonstrate why balance in a lineup is key to success. Although they had the spectacular hitting quartet of Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Larry Walker, and Scott Rolen, the Redbirds were weak at catcher, second base, and left field. Because of this imbalance in their lineup, they were swept by the Red Sox in the World Series. In comparison, another great team, the 1998 edition of the Yankees, had one of the most balanced lineups of all time. Their worst regular player, Chad Curtis, had a reasonable .360 on-base percentage and scored 79 runs in just 148 games. The Yankees, of course, swept the Padres in the World Series. The key factor here is the balance of the lineup.
One of the factors that most affects team performance is fluctuation. Because a team’s direct objective is to win games, not score runs, the standard deviation can be used to forecast the performance. Since this is a lot of work, though, another way is just to look for a balanced lineup that doesn’t depend too much on any one player. Don’t forget that in addition to having low standard deviation teams must also have a high average of runs scored.
3. You Really Don’t Need Five Pitchers for the World Series!
The biggest misconception about starting pitching in the playoffs is that all five pitchers in a rotation are important. In predicting the playoffs, however, it is only important to look at four of the starting pitchers. Since the two teams are playing only seven games in nine days, it is easy to have four pitchers take care of the series. Four days rest is standard for a pitcher, with some pitchers being able to do three days. Consider these schedules for pitchers, with 1 being the #1 starter and so forth, and x being a day off.
1 2 x 3 1 4 x 2 1
1 2 x 4 1 2 x 3 1
Both of these methods assume the #1 starter can pitch on three days rest. Even if no hurlers can throw on three days rest, there are still plenty of ways:
1 2 x 3 4 1 x 2 3
3 2 x 1 4 3 x 2 1
What do all these schedules show? A team only needs four good starting pitchers to succeed in the playoffs. While fifth starters may be important in the regular season because of injuries and fewer days off, they are not needed in the playoffs. In trying to predict the playoffs, don’t bother to look at the fifth starters. The first four starters are the only important ones. Two pitchers alone can carry a team to the championship. Consider Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson, the key players in the Arizona Diamondbacks 2001 World Series win. Even though reliever Byung-Hyun Kim allowed two game-winning home runs, Johnson and Schilling led the D-backs to their first World Series championship and had the best starting performance in the playoffs since the Dodger’s pitching staff in 1963.
4. Three Relief Pitchers Especially Important
Notice that with both hitters and starting pitchers it isn’t necessary to have more than a certain number of good players. With hitters, the lineup is by far the most important factor. Similarly, only four starters are needed in the playoffs. It’s the same with relief pitchers, since three are enough for a series. This means that bullpen depth is not key when looking at a team and analyzing its chances.
There are three types of relief pitchers. There are closers, players responsible for getting out the side in the last inning like Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera. To set them up, there are long relief pitchers. The rest of the relief pitchers are versatile swingmen who can pitch in short or long relief and even start if necessary.
It’s easy to show that a team only needs one of each kind of these relief pitchers in the playoffs. Assume that they need a closer for five games. Since pitchers like this often pitch on very little rest, one man should be able to handle this workload. The long relief pitcher should come in three or four times, two or three to set up the closer and one alone. Finally, the third relief pitcher can take care of extra-inning duties (about 44% of World Series contain an extra inning game) and anything else.
5. Watch for Designated Hitter Opportunities in World Series
The only key difference between the AL and NL is the designated hitter, and when teams from the two leagues play in the World Series, adapting to the DH rule can be decisive. How can each team cope with changing their lineup and try to make the best of this situation? This factor can play a major role in the outcome of the World Series and therefore it is important to take it into account when comparing the two pennant winners and predicting the overall champion.
How can the AL put the bat of the DH into their lineup but not destroy their defense? The usual solution is to put the DH at first base. What can the manager do, however, when a good-hitting, poor-fielding player already mans the first sack? There are several solutions to this problem. One way to get out of the dilemma is to just put the DH at first and hope for the best. This doesn’t hurt the defense too much and does improve the offense slightly. It takes a good hitter out of the lineup, though, and is not a good solution if the former first-baseman’s bat is desperately needed. Therefore, the method that should be used is to put the first baseman at a position where he will do the least damage and then put the DH at first. With this method a team keeps both hitters in the lineup and gets a weaker bat out of the game. If a team has a poor hitter in left or right field, this can be the optimal situation for them. If not, then you can degrade their chances for games 3-5.
It is much easier for the NL to adapt than it is for the AL. All they have to do is take out the best bat and worst glove combination in their lineup, put them at DH, and put in a slick-fielding and hopefully good-hitting player in.
6. Relief Pitchers Dominant in Division Series
The bullpen is the key factor in the Division Series. The fire squad is important to prevent late rallies. If the relief pitchers are not able to protect against a late loss, a team can rarely recover since the series is short and every game counts. They must come back with a rally of their own off the opponent’s bullpen to win another game. In predicting Division Series victories, the bullpen should be the foremost factor.
A good example is the division series between the Texas Rangers and the New York Yankees in 1996. In every single game, Texas had an early lead. Then why did they lose the series 3-1? Their bullpen had an ERA of 2.40, mediocre for relief pitchers. New York, on the other hand, had a brilliant .42 ERA for their relief pitchers, including 4.2 innings of scoreless pitching from Mariano Rivera.
7. Division Series Organization Is Key, World Series is Not
In the division series, the #1 or #2 seed hosts games 3, 4, and 5 while the #4 or #3 seed plays games 1 and 2 at home. Does the organization help one team and if so, how can you use this information to help predict the winner?
It turns out that since home teams usually win 53% of the games, it is easy to find that the top-ranked seed wins .511 percent of the games. This is a fairly significant advantage. We also have to take into account that the higher seed is a better team. Assuming an advantage of 5 wins during the regular season for the 2-3 seed game and a 12 game advantage for the 1-4 seed game, here is what I found:
- #1 seeds should win .669 of the time
- #2 seeds should win .550 of the time
- Both series come down to a final 5th game about .376 of the time
Why is this last piece important? In the division series, a team can start their top four pitchers in order and then their #1 pitcher in the last game. Since this happens more than a third of the time, the ace of the staff can be a very important player.
It’s clear that home field advantage has an effect in the Division series. In the World Series, though, the home advantage has little or no effect. Teams with the advantage should actually have only a .508 winning percentage, nothing special. Because the winner of the All-Star game has their pennant winner host the first two and last two games of the Series, the system has recently gotten a lot of publicity, but the statistical evidence does no suggest that it has any effect. Also, since there is very little correlation between winning the All-Star Game and the World Series, the better team does not necessarily have the advantage.
With these tips, predicting the winners in the playoffs should be easy. Best of luck, and may the team you pick win!
