Juvenile speedsters often seem the most likely to succeed at their age levels but fade as they age. There are three likely explanations for this phenomenon.
First, many sires of prodigal juveniles are speedsters themselves. Bold Ruler and Mr. Prospector are the best examples of this trend. BC Sprint Winner Speightstown was also a particularly proficient juvenile sire.
Most closers are also slow developers at two. Because of this, speedsters who duel off to a quick pace are less likely to have the race taken at the end by closers who take advantage of their fatigue.
Finally, as I discussed in April, pacesetters are at a disadvantage in the Kentucky Derby. The Derby is wrongly considered the major test for three-year olds, so the champions at two (often pacesetters because of the above two factors) rarely win the Derby.
Because the leading horses at two are so often pacesetters and such horses fail in the classic three-year-old race, these horses tend to be considered failures at three.
