Sports books have entertained and inspired me to develop my own statistics. Here are ten I have especially enjoyed.
10. Baseball Dynasties by Rob Neyer and Eddie Epstein
This book uses both subjective and statistical analysis to analyze fifteen 20th century teams selected as the greatest of all time. Each chapter uses team statistics, an overview of the lineup, pitching staff, and ballpark, and several essays on the team to describe a season one of these dynasties had. There are also chapters on the greatest teams in the Negro Leagues, the worst teams ever, the 19th century, and the great teams that narrowly missed a spot in the top fifteen.
Standard deviation scores provide the main method used for rating the teams. These scores rate teams’ individual seasons based on comparison to the mean in runs and runs scored. The appendix includes the best and worst one hundred SD scores for five different period lengths, providing a valuable resource for research on great teams. Finally, the book provides a nice sense of the history of baseball and how the game has changed from the 1906 Chicago Cubs to the 1998 New York Yankees.
9. The NFL Record and Fact Book
This annual guide is the definitive source of information about a single season in the NFL. This encyclopedia contains individual statistics for every team, the score of every game in NFL history organized by team matchup, and box scores of every Super Bowl and Pro Bowl in NFL history. Of course, the official record book is included as well as a section of pure statistics. The best part is the game wraps of every game from the most recent season, a great way to review the ups and downs of the season.
8. The Hidden Game of Football by John Thorn and Pete Palmer
I chose this book over The Hidden Game of Baseball, by the same authors, because it is more original. Even though it was published in 1986, this first-ever detailed look into football statistics is still innovative. The book has new ways to rate quarterbacks, running backs, and even the unrecognized offensive line. The insights into strategy are even more astounding: fumbles hurt a team just as much at midfield as at the opposing goal line, coaches should go for the touchdown more often on fourth-and-goal, and teams often misuse punting. By rating NFL players by all-star selections, this book exposes the mistakes of football’s most hallowed institution, the Hall of Fame. The new Win Probability method applies to football the methods that the Mills brothers used for baseball. This book will change the way you think about football.
7. Clearing the Bases by Allen Barra
A contrarian look at the greatest debates in football and baseball history. Barra picks Mantle over Mays, Clemens over Koufax, even bashes Babe Ruth and Don Shula. But all of his conclusions are backed up with solid statistics, making this a fine introduction to using numbers in sports. Barra is a fantastic writer and is adept in using statistics in multiple sports. You will disagree with some of his conclusions, but Barra is so thorough it is hard to disagree with his arguments.
6. Baseball Prospectus and Football Prospectus
Many of the best statisticians work for these annuals, which are often the source of groundbreaking research. Both contain innovative essays and a top prospects list.
BP contains analysis of every major league player and many minor league players. Each player has his last three seasons and the prediction for next season listed with both traditional statistics and statistics developed by BP statisticians. Its prediction algorithm, PECOTA, analyzes the performance of up to one hundred players who were comparable to the player in question at the relative age, and generates a predicted season as well as the probabilities that the player will improve, collapse, or have a breakout season. There is also a paragraph of often hilarious text analysis.
FP contains somewhat less analysis, but is the best source for defensive football statistics anywhere. FP writers watch every single NFL game to chart detailed statistics for otherwise unofficial categories like passes knocked incomplete, tackles, and passes defensed. As a result, their analyses and statistics are unsurpassed even by the NFL Record and Fact Book itself.
5. The Numbers Game by Alan Schwartz
This is not a book of statistics; rather it is a book about statistics. Alan Schwartz traces the history of baseball statistics from Alexander Cartwright, through Bill James and Earnshaw Cook, to the 21st century and Retrosheet. The book gives a great sense of the evolution of numbers, from the early days in which statistics were sent over the telegraph to the computerized systems employed today.
4. The ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia
This worthy successor to Total Baseball contains the statistics of every player to ever play in the major leagues. It also has box scores of all playoff games and all-star games. For sheer mass of statistics, the best book on this list.
3. The American Racing Manual
The ARM is published annually by Daily Racing Form and is the definitive horse racing statistics book. Containing the results of every stakes race and the statistics of every stakes winner, its 2000+ pages include information on every horse to race in the previous year as well as information on the racetracks and great horses in North America and the world. The past performances of the twenty-nine selected champions are especially invaluable, and to look through the pages of graded stakes results since they began is like looking at a condensed version of racing history. There is also a glossary of horse-related terms, and each edition contains a sample chapter from a newly published handicapping book.
2. The ESPN Pro Football Encyclopedia
I mentioned earlier that the ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia was a worthy successor to Total Baseball. This book betters Total Football by the length of Jack Tatum’s 108-yard fumble return. In addition to the standard reference of every pro football player’s statistics, there are box scores of every playoff game and Super Bowl in history with individual statistics and summaries. But the standout element is the box scores of every regular season game in NFL history, including team statistics, quarter-by-quarter scoring breakdowns, and any notable performances like 100 yards rushing or 300 yards passing. Want to see how California teams have done in the fourth quarter against the Vikings? It’s in the book. There are even individual field-goal distance breakdowns by season and rosters for returns, sacks, and interceptions.
1. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract by Bill James
This book does not have as many statistics as the author’s name might suggest, but it provides a brilliant and comprehensive look at baseball history. The first part, “The Game,” has a chapter for each decade and describes the changes and momentous events that occurred during that decade. Information ranges from the serious (attendance statistics and projected MVP and Cy Young awards) to the arcane (Handsomest Player of the Decade.) The second part is called “The Players,” and contains James’s top 100 players at each position. His method involves his revolutionary statistic Win Shares, and the rating system is detailed along with articles on his opinion of clutch hitting and fielding. The top 100 has an essay on each player, ranging in length from a few quotes from contemporary sources to almost ten pages long. This section is filled with anecdotes and new statistics and is easy to browse through. No other book has as much baseball history.
