Most Exciting NFL Week Ever? Monday, May 18 2009

The 12th week of the 2003 NFL season might have been the most exciting ever. Featuring improbable comebacks and overtime thrillers, not a single game was decided by two touchdowns or more.  Indeed, if all the games were replayed, just two-thirds would have been won by the same teams.

The first game of the weekend was a 30-27 overtime game between St. Louis and Arizona.  The Rams squandered a 24-0 lead in the late third quarter, letting the Cardinals take a 27-24 lead. But in the final three minutes the Rams drove 83 yards, including a fourth-and-seven conversion, to set up a 24-yard field goal as time expired. In overtime the Rams drove to the winning 49-yarder. Marc Bulger, the the Ram’s QB, threw 4 interceptions but still threw for 329 yards.

The next game was a 38-31 comeback win by Tennessee over Atlanta. The Falcons held a 21-0 lead at the end of the first quarter, but the Titans countered with a 14-point second quarter. Tennessee then had a 24-3 run to take a commanding 38-24 lead with seven minutes left, but a 41-yard touchdown made the score 38-31. Atlanta got the ball back but were stopped on downs to prevent overtime.

Indianapolis triumphed 17-14 over Buffalo despite the  Bill’s 14-3 lead in the fourth quarter. But Edgerrin James scored on a 14-yard rumble and then scored the game-winner on fourth-and-one after the Colts had been stopped for no gain on the previous two downs.

The next game was yet another comeback, this one an ugly 13-6 AFC North matchup between Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Both defenses did a great job, with Cleveland limiting the Steelers to 168 yards and Pittsburgh forcing 5 turnovers that led to all 13 Steelers’ points. Cleveland led 6-0 with three minutes left in the half, but a fumble recovery allowed the Steelers to score a touchdown and a quick field goal to take a 10-6 lead they would not relinquish.

Next came a 24-20 thriller between Dallas and Carolina. The teams were tied three times during the game, including a tie at 17-17 before Dallas scored on an option-wishbone play to take the lead for good in the fourth quarter.

Then came a 19-10 Chicago triumph over Denver. Paul Edinger kicked 4 field goals, but the key play was a fourth-and-one quarterback sneak that just got in for a touchdown. Denver might have had a chance for a comeback had the snap for a field goal not been fumbled.

Green Bay needed 243 yards rushing to defeat the 49er’s 20-10. Brett Favre threw two touchdowns and Green Bay converted three third downs to run out the clock. Terrell Owens made a great fourth-down touchdown catch to make the score 17-10, but three other times San Francisco was unable to convert in Packer territory.

New England scored with 41 seconds left in overtime to defeat Houston. The Patriots had a much better game offensively, but committed three turnovers that kept the Texans in the game. A last-minute touchdown pass by Tom Brady tied it up. After two possession changes Adam Vinatieri won it 23-20 on a 28-yard field goal.

Morten Andersen kicked a 45-yard field goal with just four seconds left to give the Chiefs a 27-24 victory over Oakland. The game-winning drive included a crucial 16-yard pass on fourth-and-14 just two minutes after Sebastian Janikowski’s 41-yarder to tie it up.

Minnesota pulled an incredible comeback to win over Detroit 24-14. After a fourth-quarter field goal, Minnesota ran an interception back for a touchdown, then three plays later, they did it again. Scoring 17 points in the final three minutes, the Vikings averted overtime in a thriller.

A 94-yard drive in the closing minutes gave the Jets a 13-10 victory over the Jaguars in an otherwise unimportant AFC matchup. Chad Pennington completed 9 of 11 passes on the crucial drive and found Santana Moss on a 3-yard touchdown pass with 27 seconds left to left the Jets to the top.

Philadelphia was never pressured in a 33-20 win over the Saints, but the game featured some thrilling moments. Deuce McAllister broke a 76-yard run and a 22-yard ramble. The Saints might have won had it not been for a crucial stop by the Philly defense and a fumble at the Eagles’ 1-yard line.

Cincinnati survived a rally from San Diego to win 34-27 on a great performance by Jon Kitna, who threw four touchdown passes and ran the clock out to save the win in the final seconds. Chad Ocho Cinco caught 3 touchdowns of 4, 5, and 12 yards.

Miami rallied from a two-touchdown deficit in the fourth quarter to win 24-23. Ricky Williams scored on runs of 1 and 24 yards to givve the Dolphins their slim one-point lead, but they nearly lost it after the Redskins forced a punt from the Dolphin’s nine-yard line.

Tampa Bay beat New York 19-13 on Monday night. Though the Bucs’ defense allowed just 212 yards and forced 4 turnovers, the Giants nearly triumphed as Tampa Bay forced a fumble as halftime expired and later intercepted a pass in the end zone. ‘

By far the most exciting game of the week, however, was a thrilling 44-41 overtime victory by Baltimore over Seattle. The game featured nine touchdown passes in just 29 minutes and 11 seconds, four of them second-half receptions by Baltimore’s Marcus Robinson. The Ravens were down 17-3 at halftime and faced an impossible 41-27 deficit with just 6:41 left and the ball in Seattle’s possession. But star back Ed Reed blocked the Seahawks’ punt and returned it for a touchdown. Then Ray Lewis recovered a fumble at the Raven’s 29 with just 4:16 left. Robinson scored again to put the Ravens just three behind. Seattle recovered the onside kick, seemingly dooming Baltimore. But Matt Hasselbeck was stopped on fourth-and-one to give Baltimore one last shot, and a 44-yard pass interference penalty on a play intended to go to Robinson set up the game-tying 40-yard field goal as time expired. In overtime, the Ravens forced a punt and Matt Stover kicked his third field goal of the game, but not before being set up by a 19-yard pass on third and 15 that went to, of course, Robinson, who fiished the game with 131 yards recieving and 4 touchdowns on just 7 receptions.

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Football and Baseball Defensive Statistics: A Parallel Tuesday, Feb 10 2009

While reading the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, a curious similarity between football and baseball defense struck me. James discusses the difficulty of analyzing baseball defense, especially the effects of the pitching staff and how a field full of great defensive players will produce just as many outs as a field with slow-footed DH’s. Just as in baseball, football players compete for a certain number of sequence-ending plays (outs in baseball, tackles in football). Similarly, defensive statistics are influenced by an independent factor, the groundball-flyball tendencies of a pitcher or the run-pass tendencies of an opposing offense.  Not surprisingly, fly balls and passes are similar. Both come down to a single defensive player (a defensive back or an outfielder) and mistakes are most costly on these plays. Groundballs and running plays also share characteristics: multiple players are necessary and speed is tested in the offense. Many statistics are similar. Defensive backs are rated on their interceptions, outfielders on their putouts. Therefore, in both analysis and statistics, football and baseball defense is very similar.

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Juvenile Speedsters Tuesday, Dec 23 2008

Juvenile speedsters often seem the most likely to succeed at their age levels but fade as they age. There are three likely explanations for this phenomenon.

First, many sires of prodigal juveniles are speedsters themselves. Bold Ruler and Mr. Prospector are the best examples of this trend. BC Sprint Winner Speightstown was also a particularly proficient juvenile sire.

Most closers are also slow developers at two. Because of this, speedsters who duel off to a quick pace are less likely to have the race taken at the end by closers who take advantage of their fatigue.

Finally, as I discussed in April, pacesetters are at a disadvantage in the Kentucky Derby. The Derby is wrongly considered the major test for three-year olds, so the champions at two (often pacesetters because of the above two factors) rarely win the Derby.

Because the leading horses at two are so often pacesetters and such horses fail in the classic three-year-old race, these horses tend to be considered failures at three.

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Special Teams: Which Position is Most Valuable? Friday, Dec 19 2008

Specialists are generally divided into punters, placekickers, and returners. Which of these positions is most valuable? It might seem like placekickers are most valuable because they are called on for crucial last-minute field goals. But is this in fact accurate? I selected the 2004 NFL season to find out.

Kickoff returners usually return about 40 kicks a season. In 2004 the leader in return average was Willie Ponder with 27.6 yards per return. The league average was 21.7, so a star returner would be worth around 240 yards, or 20 points, to a team each season.

Punt returners average 30 returns per years and 2004 leader Dennis Northcutt typically returned his punts 12 yards. The league avearage was 8.6, so a returner of his ability would contribute 102 yards or 8.5 points per season.

A star placekicker like Adam Vinatieri would make all of his 40 extra points, but so would most other kickers in the league. So only field goals contribute to a kicker’s value. Supposing a player attempts 25 field goals per season, he should make 94% of them versus the league average of 80%. This is just 8.9 points.

Punters may have the least glamorous job on a team, but stars such as Mitch Berger can average a net of 39 yards. Since the league average was 35.8 yards in 2004 and punters would probably dropkick 75 times over the course of the season, they would contribute 240 yards or 20 points.

Therefore, star talent is most valuable at the returner position because a returner doing punts and kickoffs would net 28.5 points per season. Punters are second with 20 points of value, and surprisingly, kickers are last with just 8.9.

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Larry Csonka and the Miami Dolphins Thursday, Dec 11 2008

Star fullback Larry Csonka left the Miami Dolphins in 1975 for the new World Football League. He slumped in 1974, with just a 3.8 yards-per-rush average, down from 4.6, 5.2, and 5.4 in his previous three seasons. Reports suggest his performance was worse because he was switching leagues. How would the Dolphins have done if Csonka was up to form?

The Dolphins that year had an 11-3 record and averaged just 3.8 yards rushing. If we assume Csonka would have averaged at least 5.0 yards per rush, and Jim Kiick had been up to form as well, the Dolphins might have been able to put up 5 yards per rush as in their previous two seasons. Since the Dolphins had the most rushing attempts of any team in the league, they could have significantly improved their performance. In fact, they probably would have scored more than 50 points more than they actually did.

But would this really make a difference? According to the Pythagorean Record system, the Dolphins would have won fewer games than they actually did! This is true because the Dolphins overacheived that year by about 1 1/2 games. So, even if Larry Csonka had been up to form in 1974 and the Dolphins had redid their season, in the long run it would make no difference in their record.

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My NFL Playoff Predictions Sunday, Dec 7 2008

This weekend I analyzed every remaining game for the playoff contenders to come up with what I think is the most likely seeding and playoff results. I treated 17th week games, where many teams that have clinched playoff spots rest their starters, just like regular games, favoring the stronger team.

AFC Seeding:

1. Tennessee (15-1)
2. New York Jets (12-4)
3. Pittsburgh (11-5)
4. Baltimore (11-5)
5. Miami (9-7)
6. Denver (9-7)

NFC Seeding:

1. New York Giants (14-2)
2. Tampa Bay (13-3)
3. Atlanta (11-5)
4. Arizona (11-5)
5. Carolina (10-6)
6. Green Bay (10-6)

Playoff Results:

Wild Card Round:

Denver @ Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh wins

Green Bay @ Atlanta, Atlanta wins

Miami @ Baltimore, Baltimore wins

Carolina @ Arizona, Carolina wins

Division Round:

Pittsburgh @ New York Jets, Pittsburgh wins

Baltimore @ Tennessee, Tennessee wins

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay wins

Carolina @ New York Giants, New York Giants win

Conference Championships:

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee, Tennessee wins

Tampa Bay @ New York Giants, New York Giants win

Super Bowl XLIII: Giants beat the Titans, 30-21.

Also, I have chosen the five best remaining games in the NFL schedule:

1. Pittsburgh @ Tennessee, 1 PM, December 21
2. New York Giants @ Dallas, 8:15 PM, December 14
3. Dallas @ Pittsburgh, 4:15 PM today, December 7
4. Pittsburgh @ Baltimore, 4:15 PM, December 14
5. Baltimore @ Dallas, 8:15 PM, December 20

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A Review of the Breeders’ Cup Friday, Dec 5 2008

The 25th Breeders’ Cup was one of the best, with the highlight being Curlin’s upset by Raven’s Pass in the BC Classic. But there were many other great moments, such as:

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies: Stardom Bound wins with a move that recalled Arazi, sweeping from the back to first in about a quarter-mile.

The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint: Desert Code pays more than 31-1 in winning the inaugural Turf Sprint on Santa Anita’s downhill course in the final stride.

The Breeders’ Cup Distaff: Zenyatta gets her ninth win in as many starts with a great 7-wide last-to-first move.

The Breeders’ Cup Marathon: Muhannak wins the longest race in Breeders’ Cup history in a photo finish.

And, my pick as the best race of the weekend:

The Breeders’ Cup Mile: Goldikova just gets in at the rail at the furlong pole and bursts away to win. A really brilliant ride, and she looked beaten turning for home.

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Crazy Statistics Thursday, Dec 4 2008

Hopefully this will become the first in a series of posts of crazy statistics I’ve noticed, with no purpose other than fun.
1. The Colts’ head coach, Tony Dungy, played cornerback and quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers about 30 years ago. His career offensive statistics were 8 yards on 3 attempts rushing and 3 completions on 8 passing attempts
2. Kicker Dean Biasucci played 11 years in the NFL, with season attempts ranging from 5 to 32 and hitting anywhere from 50 to 85% of his attempts. Yet his longest field goals are incredibly consistent: 50, 52, 50, 53, 55, 55, 54, 52, 53, 50, and 51.

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A Library for the Sports Fan Tuesday, Dec 2 2008

Sports books have entertained and inspired me to develop my own statistics. Here are ten I have especially enjoyed.

10. Baseball Dynasties by Rob Neyer and Eddie Epstein

This book uses both subjective and statistical analysis to analyze fifteen 20^th century teams selected as the greatest of all time. Each chapter uses team statistics, an overview of the lineup, pitching staff, and ballpark, and several essays on the team to describe a season one of these dynasties had. There are also chapters on the greatest teams in the Negro Leagues, the worst teams ever, the 19^th century, and the great teams that narrowly missed a spot in the top fifteen.

Standard deviation scores provide the main method used for rating the teams. These scores rate teams’ individual seasons based on comparison to the mean in runs and runs scored. The appendix includes the best and worst one hundred SD scores for five different period lengths, providing a valuable resource for research on great teams. Finally, the book provides a nice sense of the history of baseball and how the game has changed from the 1906 Chicago Cubs to the 1998 New York Yankees.

9. The NFL Record and Fact Book

This annual guide is the definitive source of information about a single season in the NFL. This encyclopedia contains individual statistics for every team, the score of every game in NFL history organized by team matchup, and box scores of every Super Bowl and Pro Bowl in NFL history. Of course, the official record book is included as well as a section of pure statistics. The best part is the game wraps of every game from the most recent season, a great way to review the ups and downs of the season.

8. The Hidden Game of Football by John Thorn and Pete Palmer

I chose this book over The Hidden Game of Baseball, by the same authors, because it is more original. Even though it was published in 1986, this first-ever detailed look into football statistics is still innovative. The book has new ways to rate quarterbacks, running backs, and even the unrecognized offensive line. The insights into strategy are even more astounding: fumbles hurt a team just as much at midfield as at the opposing goal line, coaches should go for the touchdown more often on fourth-and-goal, and teams often misuse punting. By rating NFL players by all-star selections, this book exposes the mistakes of football’s most hallowed institution, the Hall of Fame. The new Win Probability method applies to football the methods that the Mills brothers used for baseball. This book will change the way you think about football.

7. Clearing the Bases by Allen Barra

A contrarian look at the greatest debates in football and baseball history. Barra picks Mantle over Mays, Clemens over Koufax, even bashes Babe Ruth and Don Shula. But all of his conclusions are backed up with solid statistics, making this a fine introduction to using numbers in sports. Barra is a fantastic writer and is adept in using statistics in multiple sports. You will disagree with some of his conclusions, but Barra is so thorough it is hard to disagree with his arguments.

6. Baseball Prospectus and Football Prospectus

Many of the best statisticians work for these annuals, which are often the source of groundbreaking research. Both contain innovative essays and a top prospects list.

BP contains analysis of every major league player and many minor league players. Each player has his last three seasons and the prediction for next season listed with both traditional statistics and statistics developed by BP statisticians. Its prediction algorithm, PECOTA, analyzes the performance of up to one hundred players who were comparable to the player in question at the relative age, and generates a predicted season as well as the probabilities that the player will improve, collapse, or have a breakout season. There is also a paragraph of often hilarious text analysis.

FP contains somewhat less analysis, but is the best source for defensive football statistics anywhere. FP writers watch every single NFL game to chart detailed statistics for otherwise unofficial categories like passes knocked incomplete, tackles, and passes defensed. As a result, their analyses and statistics are unsurpassed even by the NFL Record and Fact Book itself.

5. The Numbers Game by Alan Schwartz

This is not a book of statistics; rather it is a book about statistics. Alan Schwartz traces the history of baseball statistics from Alexander Cartwright, through Bill James and Earnshaw Cook, to the 21^st century and Retrosheet. The book gives a great sense of the evolution of numbers, from the early days in which statistics were sent over the telegraph to the computerized systems employed today.

4. The ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia

This worthy successor to Total Baseball contains the statistics of every player to ever play in the major leagues. It also has box scores of all playoff games and all-star games. For sheer mass of statistics, the best book on this list.

3. The American Racing Manual

The ARM is published annually by Daily Racing Form and is the definitive horse racing statistics book. Containing the results of every stakes race and the statistics of every stakes winner, its 2000+ pages include information on every horse to race in the previous year as well as information on the racetracks and great horses in North America and the world. The past performances of the twenty-nine selected champions are especially invaluable, and to look through the pages of graded stakes results since they began is like looking at a condensed version of racing history. There is also a glossary of horse-related terms, and each edition contains a sample chapter from a newly published handicapping book.

2. The ESPN Pro Football Encyclopedia

I mentioned earlier that the ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia was a worthy successor to Total Baseball. This book betters Total Football by the length of Jack Tatum’s 108-yard fumble return. In addition to the standard reference of every pro football player’s statistics, there are box scores of every playoff game and Super Bowl in history with individual statistics and summaries. But the standout element is the box scores of every regular season game in NFL history, including team statistics, quarter-by-quarter scoring breakdowns, and any notable performances like 100 yards rushing or 300 yards passing. Want to see how California teams have done in the fourth quarter against the Vikings? It’s in the book. There are even individual field-goal distance breakdowns by season and rosters for returns, sacks, and interceptions.

1. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract by Bill James

This book does not have as many statistics as the author’s name might suggest, but it provides a brilliant and comprehensive look at baseball history. The first part, “The Game,” has a chapter for each decade and describes the changes and momentous events that occurred during that decade. Information ranges from the serious (attendance statistics and projected MVP and Cy Young awards) to the arcane (Handsomest Player of the Decade.) The second part is called “The Players,” and contains James’s top 100 players at each position. His method involves his revolutionary statistic Win Shares, and the rating system is detailed along with articles on his opinion of clutch hitting and fielding. The top 100 has an essay on each player, ranging in length from a few quotes from contemporary sources to almost ten pages long. This section is filled with anecdotes and new statistics and is easy to browse through. No other book has as much baseball history.

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Analysis Reveals Commentator Strong Contender in Breeders’ Cup Classic Tuesday, Sep 30 2008

Commentator (right) bests St. Liam in the 2006 Whitney

Commentator (on the right) bests St. Liam in the 2006 Whitney Stakes

The 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic has been billed as a showdown between three-year-old star Big Brown and Curlin. Big Brown dominated the Kentucky Derby and Preakness while Curlin is reigning BC Classic champion, Horse of the Year, and all-time leading money winner. But this analysis leaves out one of the three best horses in the country, Commentator. Considering that the seven-year-old veteran has never won a divisional championship, never finished in the top six in a Breeders’ Cup race, and has never even raced beyond 1 ¹/₈ miles, this ranking would seem laughable. These factors also indicate that Commentator would be a poor fit for the BC Classic at 1 ¼ miles against the best horses in the world. Commentator, however, has been the sport’s most underrated older male horse in the years from 2005-2008. My analysis predicts that if he were to run in the Classic, he would be a contender in the biggest race of the year.

Commentator’s Beyer Speed Figures indicate that he is one of the top horses in the country. Commentator has run twenty times in his career, and three times has run a Beyer above 120. Another three times he ran in the 110-120 range, and six other races he ran a 100 or better. Curlin’s career high is a 119 over a sloppy track (he normally runs about 110) while Big Brown consistently runs in the 100-110 range.

One of Commentator’s most notable characteristics is his affinity for longer distances. Two of his three best performances came at 1 ¹/₈ miles, one a thrilling defeat of eventual Horse of the Year St. Liam in the 2006 Whitney Stakes. In his next race, the Woodward at 1 ¹/₈, he was third against the very best horses in the country despite being pressured by “rabbits” into setting an extremely fast early pace. He earned an 82 in this race under unfair conditions. If we eliminate this race, he displays a pronounced tendency to favor long distances such as the Classic’s 1 ¼. In fact, my regression analysis predicts that he would run a 120.1 in the Classic, definitely good enough to beat Big Brown and Curlin.

graph1

The only factor that could deter Commentator from a dominating race in the Classic would be weight. In the Classic Commentator would carry 126 pounds. The only times in his career he has carried 126 pounds or more were an awful run in the BC Sprint at ¾ miles in which he earned a 75 Beyer and the pace-pressured Woodward against St. Liam in which he earned an 82. But we have already seen that Commentator would not appreciate the short distance of the Sprint and that no horse could have won the Woodward that year on the lead. Nevertheless, Commentator does have a negative correlation between performance and weight. If we extrapolate to compute his performance in the Classic considering both length and weight, we find that he would run an excellent 111.8.

graph11

This year has been Commentator’s best ever. He won the Massachusetts by an incredible 14 lengths, dominated by 4 ¾ in the Grade I Whitney, won the Richter Scale by 13 ¾, and finished a game second in the Metropolitan. The Whitney win earned him a trip to the BC Classic. If his owner decides to run him in the Classic, he will give Big Brown and Curlin a run for the Horse of the Year championship. If not, he will still be an underrated star who deserves a chance to run in a 1¼ mile race and show his distance ability. Either way, no horse since John Henry has done as well as Commentator at age six or older.

Commentator’s career past performances can be found at http://www.drf.com/bc/2008/pps/commentator.pdf

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